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CNBC called it “the big market event of 2026.”

The New York Times called it “a generational moneymaking event.”

And Barron’s says it “could be a feast for investors in 2026.”

Of course, I’m talking about the SpaceX IPO…

Which is now scheduled for June 12.

But I urge you…

Do NOT buy SpaceX shares before you click here and see this.
— THE OPEN
   

Thursday morning, Brent crude climbed toward $95 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz has been functionally closed since February. Your tank of regular costs more than it has in years.

Wednesday afternoon, Oracle reported record quarterly revenue and pledged $70 billion in data-center spending for next fiscal year. The stock fell 7% after hours. That same evening, the Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI is weighing steep price cuts to compete with Anthropic.

CPI hit 4.2% yesterday. Core stripped to 2.9%. One number says crisis. The other says contained.

Two tapes. Same economy. One is pricing a war. The other is buying AI.
01 Today
 
   
Oil Says Slowdown

The May CPI landed at 4.2% year-over-year, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Energy prices rose 3.9% for the month alone and 23.5% over twelve months. The BLS reported energy accounted for over 60% of the monthly headline increase.

Core CPI came in at 2.9%. Core commodities fell 0.1%. Strip the war out of the data, and the domestic price signal is tamer than the headline.

Brent is up roughly 31% since the conflict began in late February, per IRU tracking data. U.S. crude inventories fell 7.2 million barrels last week, per the EIA. A seventh consecutive weekly draw. The oil market is pricing supply disruption, not demand growth.
   
Risk Capital Says Buy

Oracle beat on revenue and earnings Wednesday. Revenue hit $19.2 billion, up 21% year-over-year. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93%. Then the company said it would raise $40 billion through debt and equity and spend $70 billion in net capital expenditures next fiscal year, per CNBC. The stock dropped 7%.

That drop is not a rejection of AI. It is a repricing of AI credit risk. Oracle is borrowing to build at a pace the market has not seen outside of wartime industrial policy.

The same evening, the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is weighing steep cuts to what it charges for tokens, in anticipation of similar reductions from Anthropic. The two companies are projected to spend roughly $65 billion combined this year on computing and operations, per the WSJ. Neither is profitable. OpenAI does not expect to turn a profit until 2030. Anthropic closed its Series H at a $965 billion valuation on May 28, edging past OpenAI’s $852 billion March valuation, per CNBC.

A price war between two unprofitable companies spending $65 billion a year is not a sign of retreat. It is a sign that risk capital still sees growth worth subsidizing.

SpaceX prices at $135 per share tonight after the close, per the S-1 filing and CNBC. A $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in market history. Goldman Sachs leads the book. Retail allocation reportedly 30% of the offering, triple the industry norm, per Nasdaq filings.
   
Somebody Is Wrong

Polymarket prices zero Fed cuts in 2026 at 80%. A rate hike before year-end sits at 55%. The 10-year yield steadied near 4.55%, per TradingEconomics, even after the CPI print.

If oil is right, the Fed eventually hikes and the IPO wave stalls. If risk capital is right, the war fades, energy normalizes, and the growth trade resumes. Oracle’s $70 billion bet lands. SpaceX mints a generation of new wealth.

Both cannot be true at the same time. The gap between 4.2% headline and 2.9% core is the market’s uncertainty made visible. That entire spread belongs to energy. Energy belongs to the Strait.
THE SLOW DEAL
What the rate market is pricing after CPI hit 4.2%.
FOMC JUNE 17
$76M vol · Polymarket		 99% hold
 
ZERO CUTS IN 2026
$33M vol · Polymarket		 80%
 
RATE HIKE IN 2026
$2M vol · Polymarket		 55%
 
DEC 25BPS HIKE
CME FedWatch · TradingEconomics		 Priced in
The crowd is calling 99% hold next week. The crowd is also calling a coin-flip hike by year-end. The 44 points between those two numbers is where Warsh’s first FOMC still lives.
↑ Wednesday Up
Brent crude (~$94, +31% YTD)
VIX (22.22, +11.83%)
10Y yield (~4.55%)
  
↓ Wednesday Down
S&P 500 (7,266.99, −1.62%)
Oracle (−7% after hours)
Nasdaq (25,169.50, −1.98%)
02 Worth Knowing
 

The divergence between energy and risk assets is now the widest it has been since the conflict began on February 28.

On the energy side: Brent is up roughly 31% since the Strait closed, per IRU data. U.S. crude inventories have drawn down for seven consecutive weeks, per the EIA. Headline CPI hit a three-year high driven almost entirely by the war premium in gasoline.

On the risk side: Oracle just committed $70 billion in capex for the year ahead. OpenAI and Anthropic are locked in a pricing war while spending $65 billion combined on computing this year. SpaceX prices the largest IPO in history tonight. SOXS, the 3x leveraged semiconductor bear fund, traded 1.36 billion shares on Monday alone, per CBOE data. Third-highest single-day volume for any U.S. ETF in two decades.

One side of the market is hedging against energy disruption. The other is deploying capital as if the disruption does not exist.

Both positions carry real money. The question for anyone with ETFs and an IRA: which exposure breaks first.

Today’s Quote
“
AI expenses had become a huge issue for customers.
— Sam Altman, CEO, OpenAI · Wall Street Journal · June 2026
The man running the most expensive AI models on Earth called the cost a problem. The same week, his company confidentially filed for an IPO. So did his competitor.
WORTH WATCHING

Tonight — SpaceX prices at $135 per share after the close, per the S-1 filing. Ticker SPCX. The largest IPO in market history prices into a war.

Friday, June 12 — SpaceX begins trading on Nasdaq. Goldman Sachs leads the book. Retail allocation reportedly 30% of the offering.

Tuesday, June 16 — FOMC begins its two-day meeting. Warsh’s first as chair. Polymarket prices a hold at 99%.

Wednesday, June 17 — FOMC rate decision. The statement language and dot plot revision are the trade. A hawkish shift would reprice the back half of 2026.

Early July — SpaceX expected to enter the Nasdaq-100 roughly 15 days post-listing, triggering mechanical index-fund buying.

The oil market and the IPO market are both open tonight. One is pricing disruption. The other is pricing history. The desk watches both screens.

— The PrediXmarkets desk
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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PrediXmarkets

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.