PrediXmarkets — Oil Rose 6% in 48 Hours. The Dow Sat at a Record.
The ceasefire broke. The oil waiver died. The Fed minutes land at 2 p.m. The equity market hasn't heard any of it.
 
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Mode Mobile
Mode Mobile has reserved the Nasdaq ticker $MODE.
The company behind the EarnPhone, 490M+ users and $115M+ in revenue has reserved its ticker symbol ahead of a planned listing. The pre-IPO round is still open to retail investors.
Mode Mobile $MODE ticker reserved
Reserving a ticker is the step a private company takes when it intends to go public. Mode Mobile has stated an intent to list within the next 18 to 24 months. An intent to IPO is not a guarantee that one will occur, but it signals where the company is headed.
For now, the company is still private. Shares in the Regulation A+ offering are $0.52 each, with up to 20% bonus shares for early investors. More than 60,000 investors have already participated. The $0.52 share price deadline, after which the current price will not stay open.
490M+
users
$115M+
revenue
32,481%
3-yr growth
This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile's Regulation A+ offering. Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur. The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period. *Mode revenue and EBITDA numbers includes full year revenue and EBITDA of businesses acquired in 2025. Investing involves a high degree of risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
— THE OPEN
    The ceasefire signed three weeks ago is functionally dead. Iran struck a Qatari LNG tanker near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. The U.S. hit back overnight with airstrikes on 80 Iranian targets and revoked Tehran’s oil sanctions waiver. Brent crude has risen 6% in 48 hours. At 2 p.m. today, the Fed releases the minutes from the meeting where nine officials projected a rate hike. The oil market just told them they were right.
01 Today
 
   
The waiver died. The oil shock came back.

The U.S. revoked Iran’s oil sanctions waiver overnight — the exemption that had let Tehran sell crude globally since the June 17 ceasefire. U.S. Central Command struck more than 80 Iranian targets, including air defenses, command networks, coastal radar, and 60 IRGC small boats. Brent settled Tuesday at $74.16 (+3%) and jumped another 3% overnight to $76.49. WTI crossed $72. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.50%, a two-week high, as bond traders priced a second wave of energy-driven inflation into the curve. The ceasefire was the reason oil had fallen back to pre-war levels. With the waiver gone, so is the floor.
   
The FOMC minutes tell you what Warsh won’t. 2:00 PM ET

At 2 p.m. today the Fed releases the minutes from its June 16–17 meeting — Kevin Warsh’s first as chair. At that meeting, 9 of 19 officials projected at least one rate hike by year-end, pushing the median year-end funds-rate forecast to 3.8%. Warsh’s 130-word statement removed the easing bias entirely. He then declined to project a rate path at the ECB forum in Sintra on July 1. The minutes are the only on-record source for what the committee actually debated. The question at 2 p.m. is whether the nine hawkish dots belong to voting members — or to bystanders. If the hawks vote, September is live.
   
The equity market that hasn’t heard yet.

The Dow hit a new all-time intraday high Tuesday morning before closing down 131 points at 52,925. The S&P 500 fell 0.45% to 7,503. The Nasdaq dropped 1.16% as the chip rout extended for a second straight session. But the Dow is still within 0.2% of its record close. The index is priced for a soft landing — one where inflation fades, oil stays quiet, and the Fed holds. Oil just jumped 6%. The Fed’s own dots say a hike is coming. The May trade deficit widened to $77.6 billion. At some point, the screens catch up to the bond market. They haven’t yet.
The Gap
Oil is pricing a war. The equity market is pricing a peace. The Fed minutes arrive in the middle.
Brent crude, 48-hour move
CNBC · Jul 8 premarket		 +6%
 
10-year Treasury yield
2-week high · Jul 7		 4.50%
 
FOMC hawkish dots, June
9 of 19 project ≥1 hike by Dec		 9
 
September hike probability
CME FedWatch · Jul 7		 58%
The committee raised its inflation forecast three weeks ago. Since then, the input that forecast relied on — a working ceasefire — disappeared overnight.
↑ Overnight Up
Brent $76.49 +3.1%
WTI $72.61 +3.1%
Defense ETF (ITA) +0.9%
  
↓ Last Close
Nasdaq −1.16%
SMH Semis ETF −3%
Samsung (Seoul) −7%
02 Worth Knowing
 

The June FOMC raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% — up from 3.4% at the prior meeting — citing energy and supply-shock pressures. That forecast assumed the ceasefire would hold and Strait of Hormuz traffic would normalize. Both assumptions broke overnight. The last time oil spiked into an FOMC minutes release was March 2026, when Brent was above $80. The equity market sold off 2.4% in the session after that release. This time the committee already told you it was worried. The oil market just gave it reason to be more so.

Today's Quote
“
Prices are too high.
— Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair · CNBC · Jul 1
He declined to say what the Fed would do about them. The minutes at 2 p.m. are the only document that does.
WORTH WATCHING
Today, 2:00 p.m. ET — FOMC minutes from the June 16–17 meeting. The only on-record account of whether nine hawkish dots translate into voting-member conviction. If they do, September becomes the live meeting.
Thursday, Jul 9 — SK Hynix ADR pricing at roughly $28 billion. An oil spike and rising yields are not the backdrop a $28 billion tech listing prefers.
Monday, Jul 14 — June CPI. The last major inflation read before the July 28–29 FOMC decision. May came in at 4.2% year-over-year, with energy driving more than 60% of the monthly increase. If oil holds above $75, the June print arrives into a market that already knows the direction.
Jul 28–29 — FOMC meeting. Polymarket prices an 84% hold. CME FedWatch prices a 24% hike. The gap between them is wider than it was 48 hours ago.
Real money sees what surveys miss.
— The PrediXmarkets desk
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.