The market stopped pricing cuts. Kalshi noticed first.

G7 finance ministers were in Paris this week as their bond markets repriced beneath them. The US 30-year Treasury hit 5.133%. Japan's 30-year: all-time high. Germany's 10-year: 2011 levels. UK 30-year: highest since 1998. Apollo Global Management called the G7 yield complex its highest collective level since 2004.

The move is synchronized. Oil above $112, supply chain pressure indices near 2022 highs, and central banks — including the Fed's new leadership — no longer have the inflation-is-fading argument available. Synchronized yield rises across the G7 are not technical signals. They are regime signals.

Yardeni Research put bond vigilantes "in the driver's seat." Wolfe Research wrote that bond market pressure may force a faster Iran resolution — because without one, energy-driven inflation does not stop. That is a prediction market embedded inside a bond market.

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US prediction exchange — real money, real stakes. As of Monday: 43% probability of a Fed hike before December 2026. Hike before July 2027: 63–64%. Polymarket, the offshore platform with larger global volume, prices the 2026 hike at 35%.

Both numbers were near zero six weeks ago. The move — from tail risk to one-in-three probability — happened through the April CPI print and accelerated through this week's bond rout. Kevin Warsh, confirmed 54-to-45, is viewed by institutional fixed-income desks as more hike-tolerant than Powell. Prediction markets are pricing that as a probability now, not a risk.

Real wages are negative. Retail volumes are up roughly 1% in real terms year-over-year — flat, in effect. Nominal spending holds while the underlying numbers erode. That combination is precisely what the Kalshi market is quantifying.

Goldman Sachs leads the SpaceX IPO. Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citi, and JPMorgan are also in the syndicate — roughly 16 banks total. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. Raising $70 to $80 billion. Saudi Aramco raised $29.4 billion in the largest US IPO on record. SpaceX is targeting two to three times that in a single offering.

SpaceX merged with Musk's AI company xAI earlier this year — combined private valuation $1.25 trillion. Prospectus Wednesday May 21. Roadshow June 4. Pricing June 11. Nasdaq listing June 12 under ticker SPCX, 5-for-1 split approved.

The timing is not accidental. SpaceX goes public into a market where broad economic growth is no longer trusted and rate cuts are no longer the base case. Starlink — the satellite internet network that is SpaceX's largest revenue driver — does not care whether the Fed hiked. Capital knows the difference between infrastructure that compounds through a cycle and earnings that depend on one.