Monday, June 22 — Nasdaq-100 rebalance takes effect at the open. Five AI and space names enter, five legacy names leave. Passive funds must rebalance. Watch whether the forced buying lifts or fades by noon.
Wednesday, June 25 — Micron reports earnings after the close. The chip memory cycle is the leading indicator for AI build-out spending. A beat confirms the power demand thesis. A miss reopens the bubble question.
Friday, June 26 — FTSE Russell adds SpaceX to the Russell 1000. A second forced-buying event in one week, into a stock priced at three times Morningstar’s fair-value estimate.
Sunday, June 29 — MSCI adds SpaceX. Two index events in four days will test whether passive flows can sustain a price the fundamentals have not yet earned.
Month-end — PCE inflation data. The number the Fed uses to set policy. If energy drags it lower, the nine hawkish dots lose conviction. If core stays sticky, the hike case holds.
The index loaded capital into AI infrastructure. The grid has not built the power to run it. The market is still debating the fuel.