This is not a peace-deal issue. It is a timing issue.
Oil can reprice in one session. Shipping cannot. Tanker routes, insurance premiums, naval escorts, port schedules, and cargo contracts move after the waterway proves it is safe, not after politicians announce it.
The Fed has the same lag. The dot plot is not a live market. It is a snapshot of projections built from the data officials had before the deal, before the oil break, and before any normal traffic returned to Hormuz.
That is the gap inside your portfolio. Equities priced relief. Bonds priced less inflation pressure. Polymarket still gives June 30 normalization only 21% odds.
The signal is not the signing ceremony. The signal is vessel count, war-risk insurance, and Brent staying below $83 after the cameras leave Geneva. Until those move together, the peace trade is early, not proven.