Brief
PrediXmarkets
 Market intelligence, condensed. 
— THE OPEN
  

The ISM Manufacturing report landed at 54 yesterday. That is the strongest factory reading in four years.

Orders are up. Production is up. Sixteen of eighteen industries are expanding.

The Prices sub-index came in at 82.1. Factories are busy. What they are paying to stay busy is the story.

Stocks closed at a record. The bond market priced in a hike. Both happened on the same number.

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01Today
 
  
The Factory Boom and the Price Tag

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, the monthly survey of supply executives that tracks factory activity, rose to 54 in May from 52.7 in April. A reading above 50 signals expansion. This one signals the strongest expansion since May 2022.

New orders jumped to 56.8. Production hit 54.3. The economy has now expanded for 19 consecutive months.

Then there is the price line. The ISM Prices Index registered 82.1, the second-highest reading since April 2022. Sixteen of eighteen industries reported paying more for raw materials. Zero reported paying less. Forty-two percent of survey respondents cited the Iran war as a cost driver.

A manufacturing sector this hot makes an economy that is hard to cut into. The Fed does not lower rates when the inputs feeding the country’s factories are inflating at a pace last seen the summer it hiked 75 basis points.

  
Iran Suspended Talks. Oil Answered.

Over the weekend, U.S. forces struck Iranian radar and drone sites after Tehran shot down an American surveillance drone over international waters. Iran fired two ballistic missiles at U.S. troops in Kuwait. Both were intercepted.

Then the bigger headline. Iranian state media reported Monday that Tehran had suspended all communications with Washington in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Iran is weighing the full closure of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply and has been effectively closed since March 4. A second closure would leave no fast route for Middle Eastern crude to reach the open sea.

WTI crude surged 6% to above $92 a barrel on Monday. Brent jumped to roughly $96. The AAA national average for a gallon of regular hit $4.32 as of yesterday. It was $2.96 the week before the war started. Every dollar oil adds is a dollar inflation gets harder to kill.

  
The Rate Cut the Market Still Expects

On Polymarket, the prediction market where traders bet real cash on outcomes, the odds of zero Fed rate cuts this year sit at 69%. That market has roughly $31 million behind it.

The June FOMC meeting, scheduled for June 16–17, is priced at a 98% hold. But futures markets have moved past the question of whether the Fed will cut this year. The new question is whether it hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.51% on Monday, its highest level since mid-2025, as traders priced in the growing chance the Fed’s next move is up, not down.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,599.96 yesterday. A record. The Dow crossed 51,000. Also a record. The equity tape is paying the highest price in history for an economy that the rate market says is too hot to ease. One of them is about to be wrong.

THE PRICE OF GROWTH
What the factory boom costs, and what the rate market is charging for it.
ISM PRICES INDEX (MAY)
input costs · ISM Report		82.1
 
NO CUTS IN 2026
Polymarket · $31M vol		69%
 
10-YEAR TREASURY
yield · June 1 close		4.51%
 
GASOLINE
AAA national avg · June 1		$4.32
Sixteen of eighteen industries reported paying more for raw materials. Zero reported paying less. The last time the Prices Index looked like this, the Fed was not cutting rates. It was hiking them.
↑ Overnight Up
S&P 500 (7,600 record)
Nvidia (+6.25%)
Gold ($4,566)
 
↓ Overnight Down
Bitcoin ($69,875 −4%)
Intel (−4%)
Amazon (−3.5%)
02Worth Knowing
 

The ISM Prices sub-index has crossed 80 three times in the last five years.

The first was June 2021. The Fed called inflation transitory. Within twelve months it was hiking rates at the fastest pace in a generation.

The second was March–April 2022, when the index touched 87.1. Within two months the Fed raised by 75 basis points, the largest single increase since 1994.

Now it has crossed 80 again. Factory activity is expanding. Input costs are rising at a pace the survey has logged only twice in recent memory. Both times, the Fed’s next move was aggressive tightening.

The difference is that the tightening cycle already happened. Rates sit at 3.50–3.75%. The market spent Monday setting records instead of bracing for a hike.

The price of inputs does not care what the tape expects. It only cares what it costs to ship steel through a closed strait.

WORTH WATCHING

Wednesday, 8:15 a.m. ET — ADP private-sector employment for May. The first read on whether the labor market is still feeding the growth the factories are pricing.

Wednesday, 10:00 a.m. ET — ISM Services PMI for May. If services costs echo the factory print, the hike trade gets louder.

Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET — May jobs report. The last major employment number before the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.

June 10 — May CPI. April came in at 3.8%. That number is why prediction markets see no cut coming. The next one will tell the Fed whether to hold or reach for the other lever.

Three lenses read the same economy this morning. Prediction markets, futures, and the analyst consensus all see growth. Where they part company is on what the growth’s price tag does to rates. The answer arrives in eight days, when the CPI print lands. Until then, the stock market and the rate market are sitting on opposite sides of the same number, each betting the other blinks first.

Real money sees what surveys miss.

— The PrediXmarkets desk
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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PrediXmarkets

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.