PrediXmarkets — The IPO window opened. The risk market disagrees.
SpaceX books close today. The inflation print that prices the largest IPO in history arrives at 8:30.
 
Brief
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Dear Reader,

Apple is up roughly 2,000% since 2012.

But Broadcom — the once little-known company that made the chips inside the iPhone — has skyrocketed more than 15,000%. 

Beating Apple 7-to-1!

And we saw the exact same thing happen with Nvidia … the undisputed king of AI. 

Here too, hidden suppliers like Vertiv and Super Micro have completely crushed Nvidia's returns over the last couple of years.

The big lesson here?

The headline company may get all the attention, but the behind-the-scenes supplier has often delivered the life-changing gains.

As the historic $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO approaches, many investors are convinced that buying SpaceX shares on IPO day can turn a small stake into a HUGE fortune. 

The problem? SpaceX shares are already greatly inflated even before the IPO.

That said, my research tells me there is an under-the-radar company sitting in the same “Broadcom” position for Elon Musk.

They've already shipped 5 billion critical components to SpaceX. And they are the cornerstone for Elon's new endeavor I call “Project Unlimited.”

And if you want to position yourself for a shot at a real windfall, you need to look at the exact firm supplying the tech.

However, you need to make your move before the June listing date makes front-page news.

Click here to get the details on SpaceX's “hidden” supplier now.

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Michael Robinson
— THE OPEN
   

As of last night, more than $250 billion in orders had piled into SpaceX's IPO. The company is raising $75 billion.

That is four-to-one.

The Nasdaq dropped more than 4% on Friday alone, its steepest single-day loss in over a year. The 10-year yield is at 4.57%. At 8:30 this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes May CPI, forecast above 4% for the first time in roughly three years.

The appetite for growth assets and the price of holding them are moving in opposite directions. One of those lines bends first.
01 Today
 
   
The Number That Prices Everything Else 8:30 AM ET

May CPI is expected at 4.2% year-over-year, according to FactSet. That would mark the highest reading in roughly three years. The monthly gain is forecast at 0.5%, driven by another jump in energy prices tied to the Iran conflict.

Core CPI tells a different story. The consensus is 0.3% month-over-month, cooler than April's 0.4%. The gap between headline and core is the report's real signal: whether energy costs are leaking into the rest of the basket, or staying contained.

The 10-year yield is sitting at 4.57%. Markets are pricing roughly a 70% chance of a rate hike by December, per CME FedWatch. On Polymarket, the probability of zero Fed cuts in 2026 is 80%, backed by $33.4 million in volume. The Fed's own March dot plot still calls for one cut. Somebody has to be wrong, and CPI at 8:30 narrows the list.
   
$250 Billion Showed Up. The Window Is Still Open.

SpaceX's IPO order books close today at 4:00 p.m. ET. As of yesterday evening, Reuters reported demand of more than $250 billion, roughly 3.5 to 4 times the $75 billion the company is raising. Multiple institutional investors placed individual orders of $10 billion or more.

The offering is set at a fixed price, in what is expected to become the largest public debut in history. Pricing is expected June 11, with trading anticipated shortly after.

This is happening while the Nasdaq just posted its worst session in over a year. Some analysts are speculating that institutional investors sold public holdings to free up cash for the SpaceX allocation. The market is behaving as if growth demand is unlimited and risk is rising at the same time. That is not a contradiction the tape can hold forever.
   
Three Trillion-Dollar Names Filed in Ten Days

Anthropic and OpenAI both filed confidentially for U.S. IPOs within the past two weeks, according to multiple reports. SpaceX is expected to price this week. All three are reportedly targeting valuations well into the hundreds of billions.

A wave of mega-cap AI and technology companies is approaching public markets in the same compressed window. The public markets have not absorbed this volume of new supply from a single sector since the late 1990s.

The IPO market is pricing the bet that investor appetite for AI and orbital infrastructure is deep enough to hold all three. The risk market, which saw the VIX spike nearly 40% on Friday, is pricing a different answer.
THE DEMAND
SpaceX IPO order flow as of Tuesday evening, ahead of the largest public offering in history.
INVESTOR DEMAND
Reuters, June 9		 $250B+
 
OFFERING SIZE
Bloomberg, fixed-price deal		 $75B
 
OVERSUBSCRIPTION
Reuters, Bloomberg		 ~4×
 
IMPLIED VALUATION
Bloomberg estimate		 ~$1.8T
Two hundred and fifty billion dollars of demand for a company that prices the day after an inflation print nobody has read yet. The IPO window does not ask permission from the risk market. It just opens.
↑ Overnight Up
Dow (50,872, +0.17%)
Gold ($4,227)
Brent ($93.13, +1.84%)
  
↓ Overnight Down
Nasdaq (25,679, −0.97%)
Bitcoin ($61,697, −1.3%)
SMH ETF (−1%)
02 Worth Knowing
 

The prior record for a public offering was Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion debut in 2019. SpaceX is raising $75 billion. That is 2.5 times larger.

Aramco priced into a world of low oil prices, near-zero interest rates, and subdued volatility. SpaceX prices into CPI expected above 4%, the 10-year above 4.5%, and a volatility index that spiked nearly 40% in a single session last week.

The demand is larger. So is the cost of being wrong.

WORTH WATCHING

Today, 8:30 AM ET — May CPI from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Headline forecast 4.2% YoY, core 2.9%. The number that reprices the FOMC meeting next week.

Today, 4:00 PM ET — SpaceX institutional order books close. Final demand figures set the stage for pricing.

Thursday, June 11 — SpaceX IPO expected to price. The deal that determines whether the largest public debut in history clears into a rising-rate environment.

Friday, June 12 — SpaceX expected to begin trading. First public price discovery for what could be the biggest IPO ever.

June 16–17 — FOMC meeting. Polymarket prices a 99% hold. The statement language is what matters: whether the committee drops its easing bias entirely.

Three lenses. When prediction markets, futures, and the sell side disagree, the disagreement is the story. This morning the IPO market is pricing unlimited demand for the future. The rate market is pricing a higher cost for holding it. At 8:30, one number starts to settle the argument.

Real money sees what surveys miss.

— The PrediXmarkets desk
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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PrediXmarkets

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.