Brief
PrediXmarkets
  Market intelligence, condensed.  
 
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It wasn’t voted on. It wasn’t debated in the Senate. And most Americans have no idea it’s even taking place but…

President Trump is replacing the U.S. dollar.

Not with crypto. Not with a digital currency. Something far bigger than that – and it’s already been signed and sealed in the back rooms of D.C., ready to be issued by the U.S. Treasury.

Which is why I’ve produced a critical new documentary laying out exactly what Trump’s New Dollar means for your savings, your investments, and your family’s financial future.

Good investing,
Porter Stansberry
— THE OPEN
   

Wednesday, Brent crude settled at $73.74. The lowest close since February 27, the day before the first U.S. strikes on Iran.

Four months of war premium. Erased in ten sessions.

At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases May PCE. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. April printed 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy costs that no longer exist at that level.

CME FedWatch prices a rate hike by October at 52%. Polymarket prices zero Fed cuts for 2026 at 70%. Both are built on an inflation thesis that assumed $100 oil.

Oil says the war is over. Bonds say the hike is coming. One of them is wrong.
01 Today
 
   
Oil Erased the War. The Bond Market Held.

Brent crude lost 4.33% Wednesday to $73.74. WTI fell 3.92% to $70.34. Both are trading at levels not seen since before the February 28 airstrikes that closed the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed June 17. The strait began reopening. Oil has fallen more than 30% from its April peak above $100.

In April, the PCE price index rose 3.8% year-over-year. Energy was the primary driver. CPI hit 4.2% in May, the highest reading since 2023.

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4.50% Wednesday as oil fell. CME FedWatch barely moved. The futures market is still pricing hikes. The bond market heard the oil. The rate market didn’t.
   
Micron Locked In $100 Billion. The Estimate Range No Longer Matters.

Micron reported fiscal Q3 after Wednesday’s close. Revenue: $41.46 billion. The street expected $35.84 billion. The beat: $5.6 billion.

EPS came in at $25.11. Consensus was $20.20. Gross margin hit 84.9%, a company record. Revenue rose 346% year-over-year.

The number that changes the story is not the quarter. It is the 16 strategic customer agreements. Minimum contracted revenue: approximately $100 billion. AI memory demand is no longer a forecast. It is a receivable.

The stock surged 15% after hours to roughly $1,192. Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.8% this morning. South Korea’s Kospi rallied 6% overnight. The demand side answered.
   
$27 Billion in Forced Buying Arrives Tomorrow.

Tomorrow after the close, FTSE Russell adds SpaceX to the Russell 1000 under its new fast-track rule. The Russell 1000 is the index underlying most large-cap U.S. equity ETFs. Estimated forced buying from index funds: $22 to $27 billion.

SpaceX went public June 12 at a $1.75 trillion valuation. It sold roughly 4% of its shares. The float is thin. The passive demand is not.

Separately, Alphabet joins the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday, replacing Verizon. S&P Global confirmed the switch Tuesday. Your IRA holds both indexes through broad funds. By Monday, different names, different weights, different exposure. The mechanical buying is scheduled. The question is whether forced flows create price discovery or distort it.
THE SLOW DEAL
What CME FedWatch and Polymarket say about the cost of oil-driven inflation: when the Fed hikes under Warsh.
JULY 29 FOMC
$10M vol · Warsh’s second meeting
72% hold
 
HIKE BY SEPTEMBER
$2.4M vol · BofA & Deutsche Bank forecast
42%
 
HIKE BY OCTOBER
$2.4M vol · leading outcome
52%
 
ZERO CUTS IN 2026
$36M vol · highest-volume Fed market on Polymarket
70%
The crowd calls a hold in July and a hike by autumn. Oil erased the war premium that built the hike case. If May PCE confirms the collapse, the 52% by October starts to crack. If it doesn’t, inflation has embedded beyond energy. The 28 points between July and October is where the hike decision still lives.
↑ Thursday Pre-Market
Micron (+15% after-hours)
Nasdaq 100 futs (+1.8%)
Kospi (+6% overnight)
  
↓ Wednesday Close
Brent ($73.74, −4.33%)
Gold (below $4,000)
WTI ($70.34, −3.92%)
02 Worth Knowing
 

February 28. U.S. and Israeli forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities. The Strait of Hormuz closed. Brent crude began its climb past $100.

March through April. Energy-driven inflation accelerated. CPI crossed 4%. The Fed’s rate-cut narrative died quietly. The dot plot pivoted toward hikes.

June 14. The U.S. and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding. Ceasefire on all fronts. The strait began reopening.

June 17. Warsh chaired his first FOMC meeting. The committee held rates at 3.50–3.75%. Nine of 19 officials projected at least one hike by year-end. The dots shifted while oil was still above $80.

June 24. Brent settled at $73.74. Gold fell below $4,000 for the first time in seven months. The commodity complex that built the hike case unwound. The dots that moved on that case have not moved back.

The inflation that prompted the pivot was oil-driven. The oil is gone. The pivot remains.

Today’s Quote
“
We can fulfill only 50 to two-thirds of customer demand in the medium term.
— Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO, Micron Technology · FQ2 earnings call · March 2026
He said it when Micron was earning $12 a share. Last night the company reported $25. The demand that Mehrotra could not fill then is now locked in $100 billion of contracts. The hike that was built on energy inflation now coexists with a supply deficit that won’t ease before 2028.
WORTH WATCHING
Today, 8:30 a.m. ET — May PCE release. April printed 3.8% year-over-year. A softer reading reopens the debate on whether the hike path survives $73 oil. A hotter one cements September.
Tomorrow, June 26 — Russell reconstitution effective after the close. SpaceX enters the Russell 1000. FTSE Russell estimates $22–$27 billion in forced buying at the 4 p.m. close. The 2025 reconstitution moved $217 billion in the final minutes.
Sunday, June 28 — MSCI adds SpaceX to its standard and large-cap indexes. A second wave of passive buying opens Monday morning.
Monday, June 29 — Alphabet enters the Dow, replacing Verizon. New index composition goes live.
One inflation print. Two index rebalances. A monetary thesis built on energy costs that no longer exist at the level that prompted the pivot. By Monday, your IRA holds different names at different weights. The gap between oil and the rate market resolves this week.
— The PrediXmarkets desk
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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PrediXmarkets

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.