Nine Dots Say Hike. One Is Missing.

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Brief

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— THE OPEN

Wednesday afternoon, Kevin Warsh held his first press conference as Federal Reserve chair. He used the phrase “price stability” a dozen times. He did not say what comes next.

The dot plot told the story he would not. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike by December. The median year-end rate jumped to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March. One dot was missing. Warsh confirmed he abstained.

The S&P 500 fell 1.21% to 7,420.10. The two-year Treasury yield surged 16 basis points to 4.216%, its highest level in over a year. The dollar had its best session in twelve months.

Half the committee put a hike on the table. The chair removed himself from the count. The bond market picked a side anyway.

Today

The Ghost Dot and the 130-Word Statement PER FOMC

The Summary of Economic Projections is the quarterly report where each Fed official forecasts growth, inflation, and interest rates. The dot plot is the chart inside it. Nineteen officials normally submit dots. This time, only eighteen did.

Warsh told reporters he refrained from submitting a projection, calling it consistent with his “long-held views” on forward guidance. He then announced five task forces to overhaul how the Fed communicates, manages its balance sheet, measures inflation, tracks productivity, and sources data.

The post-meeting statement ran 130 words. The previous average exceeded 300. The easing bias is gone. The phrase “forward guidance” is gone. What replaced it: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”

The new chair told the market everything about his priorities and nothing about the next move. The bond market filled the silence with 16 basis points.

SpaceX Fell for the First Time. It May Not Matter.

SpaceX shares dropped 4.95% on Wednesday to $191.82, the first decline since the company went public on June 12. The sell-off arrived the same day the broader market repriced on the hawkish dot plot. In pre-market trading Thursday, shares bounced to roughly $210.

The company confirmed a $60 billion all-stock deal to acquire Anysphere, the startup behind the AI coding tool Cursor. Cursor generates about $2.6 billion in annualized revenue. SpaceX paid in shares, not cash. That makes the deal’s real cost a function of the stock price.

At $192, Morningstar’s fair-value estimate sits at $63. Retail investors have bought $370 million in SPCX over its first four sessions, per Vanda Research. The former head of the Nasdaq said the stock trades on aspiration, not fundamentals. The Fed just repriced what aspiration costs.

The Iran Deal Leaks. The Strait Does Not Open.

Leaked copies of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, reported by the Associated Press, show the Strait of Hormuz would reopen the day the deal is signed. Signing is scheduled for Friday in Geneva. Iran would get $300 billion in reconstruction funds and broad sanctions relief.

The strait is still running at roughly 2% of its pre-war baseline. One tanker per day. The world’s largest tanker operator publicly cautioned against a premature rush. Brent crude fell to $80.91 on Wednesday, pricing the deal before the ink dries.

Oil has crashed from above $100 on the deal announcement alone. The Fed just raised its PCE inflation forecast to 3.6%, largely because of energy. If the strait stays closed past Friday, oil heads back toward $95. The rate-hike case strengthens. The market is trading the headline. The tankers are trading the water.

THE SLOW DEAL

What Polymarket says about a Fed rate hike in 2026, by meeting date.

HIKE BY JULY MEETING $192K total vol · updated post-FOMC	17%

HIKE BY SEPTEMBER MEETING $192K total vol · second most traded	25%

HIKE BY OCTOBER MEETING $192K total vol · leading outcome	32%

ANY HIKE IN 2026 parent mkt · post-FOMC surge	57.5%

Real money prices a hike by October at 32%. It prices any hike in 2026 at 57.5%. The bond market moved 16 basis points in a single session, pricing a hike closer to certainty. The 25 points between the prediction market and the yield curve is where the next repricing lives.

↑ Wednesday Up

2Y yield (4.216%)

DXY (+1.0%)

JPMorgan (+3.72%)

↓ Wednesday Down

S&P 500 (−1.21%)

Gold (−2%)

SPCX (−4.95%)

Worth Knowing

June 10. May CPI printed 4.2% year over year, the hottest reading since April 2023. Energy drove the headline. Core CPI rose just 0.2% month over month, half of April’s pace. The split handed hawks and doves the same report and opposite conclusions.

June 12. SpaceX debuted at $135 on Nasdaq, the largest IPO in history. By Tuesday it had passed Amazon in market cap. Retail investors bought $370 million of SPCX in three sessions, per Vanda Research. The same week, the Bank of Japan hiked to 1.00%, its highest rate since 1995.

June 14. The U.S. and Iran announced a preliminary peace deal. Brent crude dropped from above $100 toward $81, a collapse that rewrote the near-term inflation picture in a single week. The Dow surged to fresh highs. Markets priced peace before the ink was ready.

June 17. Warsh’s first meeting flipped the dot plot from one projected cut to one projected hike. The statement shrank to 130 words. The easing bias vanished. In five trading days, the market went from pricing a peace dividend to pricing a rate hike. That is the tape the reader walks into this morning.

Today's Quote

“

The commitment to deliver price stability is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous. That is a message we have missed for five years.

— Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair · Post-FOMC press conference · June 17, 2026

He promised to deliver on prices while withholding his own forecast. The bond market took the promise and ran 16 basis points with it. Whether Warsh meant hike or hold, the two-year yield already voted.

WORTH WATCHING

Friday, June 19 — U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is scheduled for formal signing in Geneva. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil drops further and the energy inflation case weakens. If it does not, the Fed’s 3.6% PCE forecast is already stale.

Monday, June 22 — Rocket Lab enters the Nasdaq-100. The first space-sector addition since SpaceX reshuffled the index a week earlier.

Friday, June 26 — FTSE Russell adds SpaceX to the Russell 1000. Forced index buying from passive funds begins, arriving into a stock priced three times Morningstar’s fair-value estimate.

Sunday, June 29 — MSCI adds SpaceX. A second wave of forced buying follows. Two index events in four days will test whether the passive bid can hold a valuation the fundamentals have not yet earned.

July 29–30 — Next FOMC meeting. The first date the nine hike-projecting officials could act on their dots. Two more CPI prints will land before then. The gap between the dots and the chair’s silence narrows or widens by July.

Polymarket says 57.5%. The bond market priced it as done. The chair withheld his dot. Six weeks will name who is wrong.

— The PrediXmarkets desk