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NVIDIA: “China is going to win the AI race.”

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NVIDIA’s CEO just warned that China will win the AI race… and Trump has taken a shocking measure to make sure it doesn’t happen.

Jeff Brown says it could soon unleash $100 trillion into the U.S. economy… And light a fire under one little-known stock.

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— THE OPEN
   

CME FedWatch prices a July rate hike at 30%. Polymarket, the prediction market where traders bet real cash on news outcomes, puts it at 18%. Same meeting. Nearly double the gap.

At 8:30 this morning, the June jobs report lands a day early.

If it comes in hot, the hike room wins the argument. If it misses, the hold camp keeps its margin. Either way, someone with real money on the table is about to be wrong.
01 Today
 
   
The Payroll Fork 8:30 AM ET

The consensus estimate for June nonfarm payrolls is 100,000, according to FactSet. May came in at 172,000 — double the forecast of 85,000 — and March and April were revised up by a combined 93,000.

Three straight upside surprises have pushed CME’s September hike probability above 50%. Polymarket still assigns only 53% to any hike happening this year, with $3 million behind it. The futures market is pricing multiple moves by December. The prediction market is pricing a coin flip on one.

A print above 150,000 makes September the base case. Below 80,000, the hold-through-2026 trade breathes again. The forecasters have been wrong three months running. Breaking that streak changes the Fed’s math.
   
Nike Beat on a Refund. The Tape Saw Through It.

Nike reported a gross margin of 49.2% — up 890 basis points. The tariff refund accounted for 900. Strip the one-time payment and the underlying margin fell.

Revenue dropped 4% on a currency-neutral basis. Greater China sank 17%. Adjusted earnings were 20 cents a share once the $986 million recovery is backed out. The stock has lost 75% from its 2021 peak and trades at its lowest price since 2014.

Management guided first-quarter revenue down low-to-mid single digits. The World Cup starts this summer. Nike is not spending to win it. A turnaround that keeps deferring the turn eventually stops being called one.
   
Oil Priced Peace. The Pump Didn’t.

Brent crude fell to $72 per barrel this week, its lowest since before the Iran conflict started in February. The second quarter recorded a nearly 30% drop — the steepest quarterly decline since 2020.

Iran says it has shipped more than 40 million barrels since the naval blockade lifted. Russian exports have surged to record levels. Polymarket prices a permanent Iran deal at 74%. Crude is pricing peace.

But refined fuel costs have not followed wholesale prices down. The spread between the barrel and the pump has widened, not narrowed. The ISM reported yesterday that wholesale energy prices returned to pre-war levels. Your gas station has not received the memo. Crude and retail are telling different stories, and the one that touches your wallet is the slower to move.
THE GAP
Two rooms pricing the same Fed meeting with real money. One of them is wrong.
JULY HIKE PROBABILITY
CME FedWatch · as of Jul 1		 ~30%
 
JULY HIKE PROBABILITY
Polymarket · $21M vol		 18%
 
HIKE BY YEAR-END
Polymarket · $3M vol		 53%
 
S&P 500 YESTERDAY
Dow intraday ATH 52,742 · then sold		 −0.22%
Futures traders with margin on the line are nearly twice as worried about a hike as prediction-market bettors wagering in real time. Same data. Same Fed. Different conclusions. One jobs number resolves it.
↑ Yesterday Up
Meta (+9%, cloud launch)
Bending Spoons IPO (+42%)
Gold ($4,069, +1.6%)
  
↓ Yesterday Down
Nasdaq (−0.66%)
Brent ($72.25, −1%)
Nike (−2% pre, 2014 low)
02 Worth Knowing
 

The last three payroll reports beat the consensus by 80,000 or more. The Street set the bar at 80,000 in March and the economy delivered 185,000. It set 62,000 in April and got 115,000. It set 85,000 in May and got 172,000. The pattern is consistent enough to have a name on the desk: the lowball consensus.

Today’s estimate is 100,000. Either the forecasters are systematically underestimating the labor market, or the labor market is about to prove them right at the precise moment the rate debate turns on the answer. Breaking a streak is always possible. Extending it changes the Fed’s calendar.

Today's Quote
“
We’ve seen that prices are too high.
— Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chairman · ECB Forum, Sintra · July 1
The same speech said inflation expectations had eased. The bond market heard hawkish. The stock market heard patience. One sentence, two trades.
WORTH WATCHING
Today, 8:30 AM ET — June nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The single print that reprices the July 29 FOMC. Consensus: 100,000.
Today, 8:30 AM ET — average hourly earnings. Wage growth above 4% extends the hike argument. Below that, the inflation story softens.
Friday, Jul 4 — markets closed. Independence Day. The 250th.
Monday, Jul 6 — index funds begin buying SpaceX after the close, ahead of its Nasdaq-100 trading debut Tuesday. Roughly $4.3 billion into a 5% float. The obligation is not optional.
Three lenses. CME futures are pricing a July hike at nearly double the rate Polymarket is. The jobs number at 8:30 decides which room holds the winning ticket. If your IRA owns a target-date fund, you are already positioned on both sides of this bet — and this morning’s number decides which side pays.
The gap is the story. The report closes it or blows it open.
— The PrediXmarkets desk
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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PrediXmarkets

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.