CPI, leverage, and $3.6 trillion in IPO supply walk into the same week.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May CPI on Wednesday, June 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Wall Street consensus expects 4.2% year over year, up from 3.8% in April. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is expected at 0.3% month over month, down from 0.4%.

The headline number carries the war. The Strait of Hormuz disruption removed roughly 10 million barrels per day from global supply — about 13% of world demand. IATA now forecasts average jet fuel at $152 per barrel this year, nearly 70% above pre-conflict levels. Energy prices rose 17.9% year over year in April. The May number arrives into the same energy environment.

Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting June 16–17. He inherits a rate at 3.50–3.75%, an inflation print heading toward 4.2%, and a White House demanding cuts. Polymarket prices a 99% hold. Goldman Sachs has shifted to zero cuts for 2026. The prediction market and the bond market agree on the hold. The White House does not.

Chinese stock market margin debt reached a record $431 billion last week, according to the Kobeissi Letter. The figure has doubled in two years. It now exceeds the 2015 Chinese stock market bubble peak of $354 billion by 22%.

Leveraged positioning in Asia-Pacific equity markets tied to semiconductor supply chains is also running at elevated levels. The capital is not flowing into earnings growth. It is flowing into leverage on top of leverage, in markets directly exposed to export controls, tariffs, and the Iran war’s energy shock.

The 2015 Chinese margin cycle ended in a sharp and rapid unwind. The current structure is 22% larger and concentrated in sectors with more geopolitical exposure than the last peak. The leverage is not a forecast. It is a position.

SpaceX is pricing its $75 billion IPO this week. The offering was two times oversubscribed at roughly $150 billion in demand.

On Sunday, CNBC reported OpenAI has confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC, targeting a public debut later this year at a private valuation of roughly $852 billion. The filing came days after SpaceX began its roadshow and approximately one week after Anthropic also filed confidentially. Databricks, valued at $134 billion, has indicated a 2026 listing is possible.

Four companies. Combined private valuations above $3.6 trillion. All targeting public markets in 2026. The market has not absorbed this much new equity supply from private tech in a single year. The question is not whether demand exists. It is whether there is enough capital to price all of them without repricing what already trades.