Today — April new home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET. Marvell Technology and Salesforce report after the close.
Tomorrow — First Q1 GDP revision and April PCE prices. PCE is the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely. The last reading showed core PCE near 3.2%. If it moves higher, Polymarket's zero-cut consensus hardens.
June 10 — May CPI. The April number was 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023.
June 16-17 — Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed chair. Warsh was sworn in last Friday. Polymarket prices no change at 97%. The question is not what the Fed does. The question is what Warsh says about what comes next.
If you've been reading this brief, you know the formula. Three lenses. Prediction markets, futures, and the analyst consensus. Right now, prediction markets and the equity tape agree on one thing: AI infrastructure spending is the dominant force. The consumer surveys disagree on everything else.
The informed act first. The surveys confirm later.