Strait of Hormuz at 6% odds of normal by May 15. The S&P closed within 30 points of a record anyway.
 
Brief
PrediXmarkets
  Market intelligence, condensed.  
— THE OPEN
   

Yesterday the UAE shot down Iranian missiles for the first time since the April ceasefire.

Yesterday Brent crossed $112 intraday and the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.52%.

Yesterday the S&P 500 closed at 7,200.75. Thirty points from Friday's record.

Polymarket has a different read on the war than the tape does. The dentist's IRA is reading the tape.
01 Today
 
   
Real Money Says the War Is Long

Polymarket assigns a 6% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15. The "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping by May 31" market sits at 9%. Both have over $5 million in volume behind them.

The "permanent US-Iran peace deal by December 31" market is at 75%. Long, not over.

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,200.75, down 0.41%. The Dow lost 557 points. The Nasdaq slipped 0.19% and held above 25,000.

Two markets, two answers. Real money sees a war that drags through summer. Equity money sees a war that does not derail the trade.
   
Capex Revised Up, Not Down

The five largest hyperscalers — Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle — are now expected to spend $751 billion on capital expenditure in 2026. That is 83% growth versus 2025.

The same number was $673 billion at the start of earnings season. It was $546 billion at the start of the year.

Last Tuesday a Wall Street Journal report on OpenAI's revenue concerns sent Oracle down 5% and SoftBank down 10%. Six trading days later, hyperscaler infrastructure spending got revised up by $78 billion.

The market is rotating, not retreating. Money is moving from one model name into the chip stack underneath.
   
The War Tax on Main Street

The 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.52% Monday, the highest level in over a month, up 8 basis points from Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped the same 8 basis points to 4.45%.

Gas at the AAA national average sits above $4.18. Brent crossed $112.70 intraday before settling near $103.

The reader's IRA reads the tape and is sitting close to a record. The reader's monthly mortgage refinance and the family Suburban read a different newsletter.
FOUR ODDS, ONE WAR
What real money is pricing on Iran, in four lines.
HORMUZ NORMAL · MAY 15
Polymarket, $5.8M volume		 6%
 
UNRESTRICTED SHIPPING · MAY 31
Polymarket implied probability		 9%
 
PEACE DEAL · DEC 31
Polymarket, $71M volume		 75%
 
REGIME SURVIVES · MAY 31
Polymarket, $15.5M volume		 97%
A war that drags. A regime that holds. A peace deal that arrives by year-end. The tape is pricing the deal. Polymarket is pricing the months in between.
↑ Pre-Market
Pinterest (+17% AH)
Brent ($103-$112 range)
Semiconductors (15th ATH)
  
↓ Down
Dow (-557, below 49K)
Norwegian Cruise (-8.6%)
UPS (-10% on Amazon)
02 Worth Knowing
 

The Strait of Hormuz handled roughly 130 transits a day before the war. As of May 2 it handles five to ten.

The 1979 oil shock ran 444 days from start of OPEC action to settlement. The 1990 Gulf shock ran seven months from invasion to liberation. The current closure has run nine weeks.

Brent's spot price is up. Brent's futures curve has not repriced for a year-long disruption. Polymarket has.

Today's Quote
"
The strait will not return to its pre-war state.
— Iranian Lawmaker · Tehran · May 3
WORTH WATCHING

10:00 a.m. ET — ISM Services PMI for April. Last print 52.7.

After the close — AMD reports Q1; consensus $1.29 EPS on $9.89 billion revenue.

After the close — McDonald's, Pfizer, Arista, Super Micro.

Friday at 8:30, the April payrolls print. Consensus is 60,000. March was 178,000. The labor market that priced AMD's chips and McDonald's coffees may not be the labor market that prices May.

— The PrediXmarkets desk
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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