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Brief
PrediXmarkets
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Market intelligence, condensed. |
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— THE OPEN
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At 8:30 a.m. ET, four economic prints land in a single minute: Q1 GDP, March PCE, wage costs, jobless claims. Yesterday the Fed split 8-4 — its first four-vote dissent since October 1992 — without those numbers in hand. They voted blind. Overnight, Brent crude jumped 12% to near $124 on a fresh Axios report that Central Command is briefing the President on military options against Iran. The inflation question Powell answered yesterday looks different at sunrise. |
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GDP, PCE, Wage Costs Land Together
8:30 AM ET
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Q1 GDP advance, March personal consumption expenditures, and the Employment Cost Index in the same minute. Schwab notes consensus GDP at 2.1%; the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracks 1.2%; Polymarket traders price the 2.5-3.0% bracket at 26% implied probability — narrowing overnight from 30%. Barclays economist Pooja Sriram pegs core PCE at 0.24-0.28% month-over-month; the upper print translates to 3.1% year-over-year, a full point above the Fed's 2% target. None of these numbers includes last night's Brent surge to near $124. CME FedWatch now prices roughly 15% odds of any 2026 cut — down sharply from a month ago.
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Four Reports, Three Different AI Stories
After yesterday's bell, four hyperscalers reported within roughly 80 seconds — and broke into three different shapes. Microsoft beat on revenue and Azure (+40%), but spent $3.4 billion less on capex than the analyst consensus, the first hard signal infrastructure spending may be moderating. Meta's quarterly capex came in $7.7 billion below estimates; management raised full-year guidance by $10 billion at both ends, and the stock fell 7% after-hours. Alphabet beat hardest: Cloud revenue +63% to $20 billion, backlog nearly doubling to $460 billion, and full-year capex guidance lifted to as much as $190 billion. Amazon's AWS grew 28% — its fastest quarter in fifteen — and disclosed OpenAI committed two gigawatts of Trainium chips starting 2027. Three of four are now spending more, not less.
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First Four-Vote Fed Split Since 1992
Yesterday the FOMC voted 8-4 to hold rates at 3.50-3.75% — the most divided Fed decision since October 1992. Three dissenters (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan) backed the hold but objected to the easing bias remaining in the statement; Stephen Miran, on his sixth straight dissent, wanted a 25-basis-point cut. Powell told reporters he will stay on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends May 15. The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh on a 13-11 party-line vote after Senator Thom Tillis flipped, citing the DOJ's decision to drop its Powell investigation. Polymarket prices Warsh's confirmation at 99%.
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THE INHERITANCE
Three releases in one window, before any FOMC vote can be reconsidered.
Q1 GDP ADVANCE
consensus est, q/q ann. |
2.1% |
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CORE PCE · MARCH
Barclays est, m/m |
0.24-0.28% |
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EMP. COST INDEX
Q4 2025 prior, q/q |
0.7% |
Eight Fed officials voted hold yesterday; four voted against. The 8:30 prints settle who was right.
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↑ Pre-Market
Brent (~$124, +12% o/n)
Alphabet (capex to $190B)
Gas (AAA $4.23, 4-yr high)
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↓ Down
Meta (-7% after-hours)
Dow futures (-84 pts)
2026 cut odds (~15%)
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Yesterday's 8-4 vote was the FOMC's first four-dissenter meeting since October 1992 — early in Alan Greenspan's second term, between the 1990-91 recession and the long expansion that followed. In the years that followed, FOMC dissents grew rare; Reserve Bank presidents cast nearly all of them, while governors mostly stayed in line. Yesterday flipped that script. Three Reserve presidents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented for hawkish reasons; one governor, Stephen Miran, for dovish. The committee did not crack along the regional fault. It cracked along the chair's path to the door. Thirty-three years held the line; the next thirty-three may not.
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Today's Quote
"
Elevated oil prices will push up overall inflation in the near term.
— Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair · FOMC press conference · April 29
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WORTH WATCHING
2:15 p.m. ET — ECB rate decision; consensus is a hold at 2.00%/2.15%/2.40%. After the close — Apple Q1 earnings: consensus $109.35 billion revenue, $1.94 EPS. The last full set of numbers before Tim Cook hands the chair to John Ternus on September 1. Friday, May 1 — UAE's OPEC exit becomes effective. Friday, 10:00 a.m. ET — ISM Manufacturing PMI for April. Eight-thirty answers some questions. Brent's eighth straight day of gains opens new ones.
— The PrediXmarkets desk
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For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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